Wei Han, Beijing Foreign Studies University

Climate change has become one of the greatest challenges facing human civilization. Climate disasters has already posed severe threats, and the Trump administration's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has exacerbated the global climate crisis. The Paris Agreement is an international treaty under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) held in Paris on December 12, 2015. Its core objective is to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels through nationally determined contributions (NDCs), ideally to 1.5°C.

The climate policy of the United States has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few years. During the Obama administration,U.S. played a crucial role in the negotiations of the Paris Agreement and formally signed it in 2016. The country ratified the agreement on September 3 of the same year, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025. However, shortly after Donald Trump was elected President in January 2017, the U.S. formally withdrew from the agreement in 2020, shocking climate advocates and international partners and raising concerns about its impact on global climate efforts. Following this, Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election, and in April 2021, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement, submitting a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aimed at reducing emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. However, Trump won the election last November with an overwhelming majority and became President again, initiating the process to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on his first day in office.

The United States 'withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has weakened the foundation of trust for global climate cooperation and increased the burden on developing countries like India and China. This shift may also negatively affect climate finance mechanisms available to these countries, making it more difficult to implement mitigation and adaptation measures. Moreover, it could reduce other countries 'available carbon budgets and raise the cost of emissions, potentially impacting economies such as India's. President Trump also signed an executive order encouraging the use of plastic straws, which contradicts previous efforts to reduce single-use plastics and manage waste. His withdrawal sends a very negative signal to other countries, with no doubt that the U.S. withdrawal risks stalling global efforts to reduce emissions. However, some countries, particularly China, India, and parts of Europe, have strengthened their commitments and expressed willingness to cooperate and work towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

According to Carbon Brief’s analysis, nearly 95% of countries failed to submit new climate commitments for 2035 by the deadline set by the United Nations. This has raised serious concerns about whether the agreement can drive substantial progress on climate change. Meanwhile, escalating climate disasters, from record-breaking heatwaves and catastrophic floods to extreme wildfires, highlight the urgent need for decisive leadership. Without immediate and decisive action, the Paris Agreement risks becoming an empty promise rather than a binding global commitment.

In the absence of the United States, the world urgently needs to fill the leadership vacuum in global climate governance and promote collective action to address the crisis. The U.S. withdrawal has created an opportunity for China to take on global climate leadership responsibilities. By taking proactive measures to reduce emissions, China has demonstrated significant commitment, strong credibility, and leadership potential. China is committed to contributing to global climate governance by increasing investment in renewable energy, expanding its carbon trading system, and formulating green investment principles (GIP) for the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative. In April 2018, China reorganized its government functions by establishing the Ministry of Ecology and Environment to oversee climate change and enhance coordination between ecological protection and climate action.

In 2020, China announced its goal to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, updating its nationally determined contributions, including new plans, arrangements, and more effective policies. In 2021, China established a dedicated leadership group to guide efforts toward peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. Before the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, Chinese officials reaffirmed that since 2016, China has provided over $24 billion in financial support to developing countries for climate change initiatives, and expressed willingness to continue providing support in the future. Additionally, China has deepened high-level exchanges in multilateral and bilateral climate change negotiations and strengthened pragmatic cooperation with other countries on climate change issues. Addressing the climate crisis and driving the transformation of the global energy system requires bold leadership and the ability to set ambitious future goals. Although challenges remain for China, it has shown strong resolve to actively contribute to addressing the climate crisis by fulfilling its climate commitments timely.

The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement presents both challenges and opportunities for India to reassert its climate leadership. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reaffirmed India's commitment to the green transition and spearheaded ambitious renewable energy programs to curb emissions. These initiatives not only surpass previous targets but also achieve milestone accomplishments. According to a government press release, as of December 2024, India's total installed renewable energy capacity has reached 209.44 GW, with solar (97.86 GW) and wind (48.16 GW) dominating the market. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has set an ambitious goal of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel power generation capacity by 2030. However, ongoing tariff wars with the United States and issues such as weak infrastructure may undermine India's efforts to expand its renewable energy capabilities.

In summary, Donald Trump's withdrawal has created a noticeable leadership vacuum in global climate governance, which highlights the instability of global climate governance in an era of geopolitical turmoil. As climate disasters intensify, the world cannot afford a leadership vacuum, as the world's collective ability to address climate change bridging differences and prioritizing the planet's urgent needs over short-term interests. With key forums such as the G20 and the United Nations Climate Change Conference approaching, the world will closely watch how China and India shape the future of global climate governance.

Company: Beijing Foreign Studies University

Contact Person: Wei Han

Email: vikash@bfsu.cn

City: Beijing